The Atlantic Energy Group (AEG) brings together energy professionals in academics, government, and industry for policy and modeling analysis. Prior to 2006, AEG was known as the East Coast Energy Group (ECEG).

AEG co-organizes meetings with the Trans-Atlantic Infraday Conference, held annually in the fall in Washington, DC. See meeting agendas and presentations

For more information about AEG or to be put on the mailing list, email Benjamin Hobbs.

 

2015 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Workshop and 9th Annual Trans-Atlantic Infraday (TAI)

October 30, 2015

Workshop agenda
 
Presentations
 
Presenters: Pearl Donohoo‐Vallett, Brattle; Qingyu Xu, Johns Hopkins University (JHU); Benjamin F. Hobbs, JHU; Jonathan Ho, NREL; Saamrat Kasina, JHU; Jasmine Ouyang, E3

 


2014 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Workshop and 8th Annual Trans-Atlantic INFRADAY on Energy

November 6-7, 2014

Workshop/TAI Agenda

Presentations

Network expansion to mitigate market power, presented by Daniel Huppman, Alexander Zerrahn

Electricity market impacts of increased demand flexibility enabled by smart grid, presented by Åsa Grytli Tveten, Iliana Ilieva, Torjus Folsland Bolkesjø

The effect of wind on wholesale electricity prices: the case of Ireland, presented by Valeria Di Cosmo and Laura Malaguzzi Valeri

Mechanism Design for Demand Aggregation, presented by Alfredo Garcia

Personality Factors for Behavior Driven Energy Efficiency, presented by Meng Shen and Qingbin Cui

Flexible Operation of Post Combusion amine-based CC with a Colicated Wind Farm, presented by Rubenka Bandyopadhyay

The Effect of Wind Power on Market Conditions, presented by Ian B. Page

The Current-Voltage (IV) Successive Linear Program of the ACOPF, presented by Anya Castillo

Wind power integration and consumer behavior: a complementarity approach electricity, presented by Ali Daraeepour, Jalal Kazempour, Antonio Conejo and Dalia Patino-Echeverri

The Value of Demand Response in Wind-integrated Electricity Market: A Stochastic Equilibrium Model, presented by S. Jalal Kazempour, Venkat Prava, Ben Hobbs

Restructuring European electricity markets - a panel data analysis, presented by Marie Hyland

Multi-objective Framework for Evaluating Resiliency Measures for Electric Power Systems, presented by Frank A. Felder, Gene X. Shan and David W. Coit

Integrated Solar Combined Cycle (ISCC) Power Plants: An alternative to integrate solar energy in current power systems, presented by Bandar Alqahtani and Dalia Patino-Echeverri

Application of Internal Combustion Free Piston Generation in the Micro Distributed Generation and Combined Heat and Power Market, presented by Mark D. Bryfogle

Did Imperialism Kill Micro-Grids? Is the Regulatory Mindset Preventing Electrification?presented by Mark B. Lively

Role of governance in independent decision making for building electric infrastructure resiliencepresented by Gene X. Shan, Frank A. Felder, and David Coit

Bilateral contract optimization in power markets, presented by Miguel F. Anjos

Risk Induced Path Dependency in Resource Acquisitionpresented by Janne Kettunen, Derek W. Bunn

A Perspective on the Clean Power Plan: Rate versus Mass and the Covered Sectorpresented by Sophie Pan, Dallas Burtraw, Anthony Paul, Karen Palmer

Challenges for Balancing Area Coordination Considering High Wind Penetrationpresented by Robin Broder Hytowitz, Ben Hobbs, Ozge Ozdemir

A Rolling Optimization Approach for Stochastic MCPs with Endogenous Uncertainty: Application to Gas Marketspresented by Mel Devine, Steven Gabriel and Seksun Moryadee

The Influence of the Panama Canal on Global Gas Trade, presented by Seksun Moryadee, Steven Gabriel, Francois Rehulka

A simulation-based decision model for designing contract period in energy performance contracting, presented by Qianli Deng, Qingbin Cui, and Xianglin Jiang

Navy Alternative Fuel Vehicle, presented by William Komiss

Equilibrium Model of the Biofuel Market to Determine Optimal Volumes for the Renewable Fuel Standard, presented by Sauleh Siddiqui

Historical Interface Loading Analysis for Schedule and Actual flows on the Eastern Interconnection, presented by Jagjit Singh

Assessing the Impacts of Preferential Procurement on Low-Carbon Building Emission
Presenters: Xiaoyu Liu, Qingbin Cui

The Reduction of Fuel Burn in Terminal Airspace through En-Route Speed Control in the Presence of Demand Uncertainty, presented by James Jones

Joining the CCS Club! The economics of CO2 pipeline projects pipeline, presented by Olivier Massol, Stéphane Tchung-Ming, Albert Banal-Estañol

The EIA-930 survey hourly electric operating data, presented by William Booth

Seams Issues in Capacity Markets, presented by Pradyumna C. Bhagwat, Laurens J. de Vries

Determinants of the Effectiveness of Residential Electricity Demand Response Programs, presented by Lai Zao and Ben Hobbs

 

 

2011 - 2013 FERC and TAI

For agendas and presentations from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Workshop and 9th Annual Trans-Atlantic Infraday (TAI) in 2011 - 2013, click here

 

 


 

2009

Meeting #1-2009: March 23, 2009

Meeting theme: Modeling Risk
We look at two applications one in energy and one in the environment. Given the recent experience in the world economy and the failures resulting from financial engineering, we are having two talks about risk in general that should be valuable in bringing new notions to the modeling of risk and making decisions under uncertainty. The hubris in modeling is presuming we know more than we do. We hope these presentations will elicit discussions that will generate better approaches to representing and dealing with risk.

Presentations

Generation Capacity Expansion in a Risky Environment: A Stochastic Equilibrium Analysis, Yves Smeers, Professor, Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium, Yves.Smeers@uclouvain.be

Abstract: Former generation capacity expansion models were formulated as optimization problems. They included a reliability criterion that guaranteed security of supply. The situation is different in restructured markets where investments need to be incentivised by the margin accruing from electricity sales after accounting for fuel and possibly carbon costs. We formulate an equilibrium model of the electricity sector with both investments and operations. Electricity prices are set at the fuel and carbon cost of the most expensive operating unit when there is no curtailment, and at some regulated price cap when there is curtailment. There is a CO2 market and different policies for allocating allowances. We focus on some of the risks faced today by investors in generation capacity.

 

Robust Optimization: Back to the Future, Allen Soyster, NSF, asoyster@nsf.gov

Abstract: Robust Optimization is a relatively new field, but related to some earlier work which focused on replacing algebraic constraints with the more rudimentary notion of sets and set containment. Some perspectives and insights between these two approaches for modeling uncertainty will be presented.

 

Thinking about Risk, Jacqueline Meszaros, National Science Foundation, jmeszaro@nsf.gov

Abstract: The fields of cognitive psychology, judgment/decision making and behavioral economics have findings (and thoughts) worth sharing regarding how experts and laypeople think about risk. Of particular interest, is how decisions are made in domains that are fundamentally (epistemically) risky and unknowable. I will provide perspective on the state of understanding pertinent to organizational decisions in these domains and look forward to this opportunity to discuss the potential integration of these cognitive findings with climate modeling and analytic approaches to modeling risk.

 

Global climate change, Micro correlations, Tail dependence, Roger Cooke, Chauncey Starr Chair in Risk Analysis, Resources for the Future, cooke@rff.org

Abstract: Climate change must impact the way we conceptualize and manage risks. Global changes may induce small correlations between heretofore disparate phenomena, and may limit our ability to securitize risk. Tail dependence may change the way government and private insurance partition risk. Some initial data analyses will hopefully promote reflection and speculation.

 

Meeting #2-2009: November 13, 2009 at the Trans-Atlantic Infrastructure Conference in Washington, DC

Organized by Resources for the Future, University of Maryland at College Park, Dresden University of Technology, and DIW Berlin (German Institute for Economic Research)

 

 

2008

Meeting #1-2008: January 10, 2008 at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC)

Meeting theme: Electricity Markets
We discussed reform or regulation and how modeling can contribute to the discussion.

Presentations
 

Electricity Market Hybrids: Mixed Market Design, Regulation and Investment, Bill Hogan, Harvard University

Dealing with Failed Deregulation: What Would Price C. Watts Do? Mike Rothkopf, Penn State University

A Political Economy of Electricity Markets: A Brief History, Peter van Doren, Cato Institute

Structuring Electricity Markets, Lester Lave, Carnegie Mellon University,

Who Drank Karl's Kool Aid? Richard O'Neill, FERC

 

Meeting #2-2008: September 17, 2008 at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC)

Meeting theme: Bridging Gaps in Modeling
We discussed bridging the yawning gulf between financial modeling and engineering-economic modeling for policy.

Presentations

Stochastic Models, Auctions, Wind and Demand: Should we guess who is coming the dinner? Should we set an extra place at the table? Should they have reservations? Richard O'Neill, FERC

Generation Asset Valuation with Operational Constraints – A Trinomial Tree Approach, Andrew Liu, ICF International

Stochastic Market Equilibrium Models Using Complementarity Theory, Steven A. Gabriel, University of Maryland

Regulatory Uncertainty & Risk Aversion in a Market Equilibrium Model: Are Deterministic & Risk-Neutral Policy Models Biased? Lin Fan, Benjamin F. Hobbs and Catherine S. Norman, Johns Hopkins University

Modeling Risk Management in Oligopolistic Electricity Markets: A Benders Decomposition Approach, Mariano Ventosa, Universidad Pontifica Comillas (Spain)

Nodal Prices in the Day-Ahead Market, Fred Murphy, Temple University

 

Meeting #3-2008: November 14, 2008 at the Trans-Atlantic Infrastructure Conference, Resources for the Future, Washington, DC

 


2007

Meeting #1-2007: May 17, 2007 at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

Meeting theme: Everything Capacity Market Design

This meeting is meant to be a "sleeves rolled-up" session on what questions to ask about electricity capacity markets, and how they might be addressed by models.  For instance:
 
  • What is the purpose of payments for capacity? 
  • What mechanisms are most efficient in achieving capacity adequacy goals? 
  • What distortions in investment decisions (e.g., generation mix) might result? 
  • Can efficient incentives be provided for demand response/energy efficiency? 
  • Does the presence of market power change any of these conclusions?
  • If the purpose is to incent investment, is there any reason why they need to be made to capacity that existed before the payments are initiated? 
  • If they are paid to preexisting capacity that was built under rate of return regulation, should the payments be made to the current owners or to the regulated LSE that sold it off (and why)?

Presentations

The need for mandatory capacity markets (Opening remarks), Richard O’Neill, FERC

Capacity market developments, David Mead, FERC

Markets for Resource Adequacy, Peter Cramton, University of Maryland. Supplementary paper: Colombia Firm Energy Market

The PJM Reliability Pricing Model: Summary and Dynamic Simulation to Support Design, Benjamin Hobbs, Johns Hopkins University

On the Impact of Forward Markets on Investment in Oligopolistic Markets with Reference to Electricity, Fred Murphy, Temple University. Part 1: Deterministic Demand. Part 2: Uncertain Demand.

A Reinforcement Learning Algorithm for Agent-Based Modeling of Investment in Electricity Markets, Fernando Oliveira, University of Warwick

Investment Dynamics in Electricity Markets, Alfredo Garcia, University of Virginia. Supplementary paper: Investment Dynamics in Electricity Markets (April 2007)

 

Meeting #2-2007: November 2, 2007 at the Trans-Atlantic Infrastructure Conference, Riggs Alumni Center, University of Maryland at College Park.

 

 
 

2006

Meeting #1-2006: January 27, 2006 at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

Meeting theme: Everything You Wanted to Know About Natural Gas

Presentations

Summary of presentation by Philip Budzik, USDOE EIA, Oil and Gas Division. See the EIA website to find materials pertaining to the Annual Energy Outlook 2006 energy projections presentation.
 
  1. The growth in nonproducing natural gas reserves over the last 18 years, which has reduced the proportion of producing natural gas reserves.
  2. The growth in natural gas production which occurred in old gas fields during the 1990s as a result of wellhead price decontrol, and which helped keep down prices during the 1990s.
  3. The latest EIA natural gas projections.
Evolution of Commercial LNG: Industrial Reorganization of the Natural Gas Business, David Nissen, Columbia University
 

Natural Gas Market Modeling, Steve Gabriel, Jifang Zhuang, and Ruud Egging, University of Maryland at College Park

Energy Efficiency's Role in Getting America Out of its Energy Straightjacket, Neal Elliot, ACEEE and Skip Laitner, EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs

 

Meeting #2-2006: November 3, 2006 at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

Meeting theme: Emissions Allowance Allocation Systems: Economic Incentives and Modeling

Presentations

Estimating Future Air Emissions Allowance Values, Sam Napolitano, Director Clean Air Markets Division, EPA. Sam Napolitano discussed his experience with and future directions of conventional pollutant trading in the U.S.
 
 

The EU-ETS: Observations and thoughts about the first half of the 2005-2007 compliance period, Yves Smeers, CORE, Universite’ Catholique Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

Abstract: The EU-ETS began operations on January 1, 2005. After a brief introduction to the system, we discuss three issues that emerged during the first 18 months of operation. We analyze the evolution of the price of the allowances and relate them to the switching prices between coal and gas. The “windfall profits” of the generators became a subject of intense debate. We summarize the discussion. Finally, we take up the question of the free allocation of allowances and relate it (in an admittedly awkward way) to the crucial issue of investment generation. We present a stylized model of the question.
 
 

Long Run Power Sector Response to CO2 Allowance Allocation Methods, Ben Hobbs, Johns Hopkins University, Yihsu Chen, University of California-Merced, and Jong-Shi Pang and Jinye Zhao, Rennselaer Polytechnic

Abstract: By basing the allocation of CO2 emissions allowance on investment decisions, carbon trading systems (including the EU) risk distorting investments. A long run capacity equilibrium problem is formulated subject to allocation rules, and is analyzed for existence of solutions. Simulations show a potential for large distortions. In particular, if some or all allowances are awarded to new investments in proportion to emission rates, equilibrium generation mixes are altered, increasing costs. If all allowances are given to new investment, in the long run, all allowance rents will be returned to consumers through power prices, but large distortions can occur in generation mixes. A curious result of one set of assumptions is that the total cost to consumers of small or large reductions in CO2 emissions is similar.
 
 

Compensation Rules for Climate Policy in the Electricity Sector, Dallas Burtraw and Karen Palmer, Resources for the Future

Abstract: Policies to cap emissions of CO2 in the U.S. economy could pose significant costs on the electricity sector, which contributes roughly 40% of total U.S.CO2 emissions. Whether producers or consumers bear the cost of this regulation depends on whether generators are subject to cost-of-service regulation or sell power at market-determined prices. Moreover, the claim for compensation by producers depends on the length of the yardstick used to measure harm. Under one recent and relatively modest proposal, when measured at the facility level, the industry could suffer a loss of $50 billion (1999$). However, many facilities gain value. At the firm level where investors own a portfolio of facilities the loss would sum to $14 billion, while many firms would enjoy a substantial gain in value. Under this proposal the net present value of emission allowances sums to $141 billion. Hence, free distribution to electricity generators of emission allowances needed to cover electricity sector emissions has the potential to substantially over-compensate generators. The initial distribution of a portion of the valuable emission allowances represents a significant potential source of compensation, but it is easy for the compensation to fail to reach those who bear the burden of costs. Free allocation also has substantial efficiency costs, raising the social cost of a policy that already promises to be more expensive than prior air pollution regulations.
 
In this paper we look for approaches to target the initial distribution of emission allowances in order to maximize the share of allowances available for auction while achieving specified compensation goals. Using a detailed simulation model, we find that if regions or states are assigned emission budgets and apportioned emission allowances, they can achieve full compensation using facility-level information with just 39% of the emission allowances, which leaves a net gain in the industry of $19.5 billion. If allocation remains a federal matter then the goal of achieving compensation is less efficient. Information about firm-level emission rates can be used to fully compensate firms using 65% of emission allowances. This approach leaves a net gain in the industry of $36.7 billion. In the federal context we show that the incremental cost of compensating for the last $2.6 billion in harm spread across 81 firms would be about $62 billion in allowance value. A smaller share of emission allowances would be required if regulators at the state or regional level were to use information about firm-level emission rates, requiring just 32% of emission allowances to be given away for free. This would leave the industry with a net gain of $15 billion.
 

2005

No meetings were held in 2005


   
2004

 

Meeting #1-2004: January 26, 2004 at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

See photos of presenters and discussions

 

Presentations

Transmission Rights and Market Power, Peter Cramton, University of Maryland

Some Thought-ettes on Artificial Agent Modeling and Its Uses, Prepared by Steven Kimbrough and presented by Frederic Murphy, University of Pennsylvania

Agent-Based Energy Modeling, Fernando Oliveira, University of Porto (Portugal)

 

Meeting #2-2004: April 16, 2004 at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

Download the full meeting program with abstracts

 

Session #1: Transmission Issues

Transmission: How Much Should Be Built? What are the Benefits and Costs? Kojo Ofori-Atta, ICF Consulting

Beyond the Ten Principles: Merchant Transmission Policy & Why it Still Matters, Kelly Perl, FERC

Evaluating Reliability Policies and Incentives for Liberalized Electric Power Systems, Frank Felder, Rutgers University

Current Debate on Merchant Transmission Investment Incentive Regimes, Joseph Cavicchi, Lexecon

 

Session #2: Collusive Games in Energy

Dynamic Theories of Oligopoly, Joe Harrington, Johns Hopkins University

Vertical Structure in the Natural Gas Market, Steve Gabriel and Debby Minehart, University of Maryland

 

Meeting #3-2004: November 10, 2004 at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

 

Meeting theme: Representing Technological Change in Energy/Environment/Economy Models

Download the meeting summary

 

Presentations

Economics of Technological Change in the Context of Energy and Environmental Policy Modeling, Richard Newell, Resources for the Future

Capturing Technological Progress in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), Robert Eynon, Energy Information Administration at the US Department of Energy. Read an overview of NEMS

Capturing Economy-Wide Policy Effects in a Model with Market Failures, Donald Hanson, Argonne National Laboratory. Download a related presentation

The Shape of Things to Come: Incorporating Unproven Reserves of Efficiency Savings in Energy Models, Bruce Biewald, Synapse Energy. Review a summary of Synapse Energy’s efforts in this area

Characterization of the Potential for Energy Efficiency, Neal Elliott, American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy
 



2003

Meeting #1-2003: September 24, 2003 at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

Download the meeting summary

 

Meeting #2-2003: November 12, 2003, at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

Download the meeting summary

 

Presentations

Forward Markets and Oligopoly, Frederic Murphy, University of Pennsylvania

Installed Capacity Requirements and Price Caps: Oil on the Water, or Fuel on the Fire? Benjamin Hobbs, Johns Hopkins University and Steven Stoft, University of California Energy Institute and the Brattle Group.

Notes on Joint Equilibrium of Day-Ahead and Real-Time Markets, Ross Baldick, University of Texas at Austin

Do Forward Markets Enhance Competition? Experimental Evidence, Chloé Le Coq, Stockholm School of Economics and Henrik Orzen, University of Nottingham

Article discussed: B.Allaz and J.-L Vila. 1993. "Cournot Competition, Forwards Markets and Efficiency," Journal of Economic Theory, 59, 1-16 (Presenter: Frederic Murphy)

 

Photos from the January 26, 2004 - Meeting #1-2004

 
Peter Cramton from the University of Maryland presents "Transmission Rights and Market Power"
 
 
Ben Hobbs from Johns Hopkins University talks during a discussion
 
 
Fred Murphy from University of Pennsylvania prepares for his presentation
 
 
Fred Murphy from the University of Pennsylvania presents "Some Thought-ettes on Artificial Agent Modeling and Its Uses"
 
 
Listening to a presentation
 
 
Fernando Oliveira from the University of Porto presents "Agent-Based Energy Modeling"
 

A group listens to a presentation
 

To change our laws and culture, the green movement must attract and include the majority of all people, not just the majority of affluent people.
— Van Jones